Michigan Poll: Trump And Harris Tied In Presidential Race Post-Biden's Exit

Introduction

Michigan, home to an important battleground electorate, undeniably influence national politics in the U.S. The outcome of a recent poll conducted in the state gives us a snapshot of where the race for the presidential elections stands among likely voters.

The Trump-Harris showdown

A recent WDIV/Detroit News survey was carried out from Monday through Wednesday, following the withdrawal of President Joe Biden from the 2024 presidential race. The poll, which queried Michigan voters on their preferences for the potential race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, found that the presidential race is deadlocked, with Harris and Trump both securing 41% of the vote.

The full poll breakdown indicates that 41.6% of participants pledge their support to Kamala Harris, while 41.3% favor Donald Trump. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. emerged as the choice for 9.7% of voters, while 5.9% remained undecided. Interestingly, the poll revealed a one-point lead for Kennedy among Independent voters, but with nearly 18% still on the fence.

Divergence between male and female voters

The survey revealed significant differences in preferences among male and female voters. Trump enjoys a substantial lead of 15% among male voters with 50.3% favoring him, while Harris leads among women voters by 14.4% at 47.4% of the vote. Kennedy gains 8% and 11.2% from the male and female demographic, respectively.

African American voter support

Among the African American voters in the survey, a strikingly high 82.1% expressed their support for Kamala Harris, while 11.5% supported Kennedy. In a notable departure, none of the African American respondents in this survey expressed support for Trump.

Voter sentiment following Biden’s decision

Biden’s announcement to not run for president again seems to have found favor among Michigan voters, with 88.3% agreeing with his decision. When asked if Biden’s announcement had affected their motivation to vote, 25.6% of respondents claimed that it made them more motivated, while 73.2% said it had made no change. Surprisingly, Biden’s announcement had the largest effect on ‘Strong Democratic’ voters, voters aged 18-29, and African American voters in terms of motivation to vote in November.

Poll Methodology

The survey, conducted by The Glengariff Group, Inc., involved a sample of 600 likely general election voters in Michigan and was conducted between July 22-24, 2024. The survey has a margin of error of +/-4.0% at a 95% confidence level. Of the respondents, 17.8% were reached via landline telephone, while 82.2% were contacted via cell phone.

Conclusion

This recent survey paints a snapshot of how the presidential race might play out in this vital electoral battleground. The race remains dynamic, with key demographic groups poised to have a significant impact on the ultimate result.