Tropical Storm Debby: Potential Tropical Depression En-route, Impact on Florida Uncertain

Tropical Wave Increasing in Strength, Heading for U.S.

The National Hurricane Center has bumped up the potential for a growing tropical wave that is making its way towards Florida and the U.S. According to the most recent advisory, if sustained winds hit 39 mph, we could see the formation of Tropical Storm Debby, marking the fourth named storm of this year’s Atlantic hurricane season.

Probability of Development and Current Trajectory

The system under observation has a 60 percent chance of development over the next seven days and the possibility of a tropical depression taking form later this week. Even though at first glance, the colorful markers might lead you to think of the typical “cone of concern”, it’s important to clarify that the orange zone actually indicates where a tropical cyclone could develop. A tropical cyclone is an umbrella term that covers all types of tropical systems, from depression, storm to hurricane.

A Closer Look at the Conditions

Currently, the tropical wave at center-stage is placed a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles and is creating limited shower activity owing to the environmental dry air around it. Conditions are, however, predicted to alter for the better over the warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. This shift could potentially result in a tropical depression forming later this week as the system nears the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas. It is advised that residents in these regions, as well as the southeastern U.S., remain updated on the progress of this system.

What Impact Does Florida Have to Brace for?

The strength of the tropical wave and its path depends on several factors. As things stand, the tropical wave is battling against dry air and wind shear as it ventures westward. These factors hinder the development and strengthening of such tropical systems. AccuWeather meteorologists caution that this scenario could change at the end of the week when the wave moves to an area of low shear and high moisture, thereby enabling it to gain strength and become organized.

Scenarios Impacting the U.S.

AccuWeather has outlined two potential scenarios depending on the storm’s path. One, if the storm turns north of the big islands in the northern Caribbean later this week, it could be a greater concern for the East Coast of the U.S. Two, if the storm veers just south of the big islands, the U.S Gulf Coast might have to brace for impact.

Potential Regions of Impact and Imperative Preparations

At the moment, it’s extremely hard to pinpoint whether Florida or the U.S. will feel any effects from the tropical wave. Nonetheless, residents should be prepared for potentially rough surf and magnified seas, as well as dangerous rip currents. All communities are urged to keep abreast with the current situation and take all necessary precautions. This advice is particularly salient given that this year’s hurricane season promises a flurry of activity.